Market research specialist Forrester has issued new year-end projections for e-commerce growth in Europe - and the picture is very bright, at least in the north.

Forrester says online business and consumer trade will grow at triple-digit rates over the next five years, reaching 1.6 trillion euros by 2004. Growth will be strongest in northern Europe, where the gap with the US will be significantly closed.

Business-to-business trade is expected to outgrow consumer trade by a wide margin, accounting for most of the total e-commerce value

"To realise its potential, Europe must overcome a number of real and perceived hurdles to sustained growth," Forrester notes. "Companies need to ignore yesterday's hype and focus on pragmatic issues like hiring personnel with the right skills and building the necessary infrastructure for e-commerce to succeed."

One piece of that infrastructure is e-commerce networks, groups of independent business units that handle transactions on the net in seamless business relationships. These networks will bring buyers and sellers together across industries and geographies that do not easily link offline, Forrester says.

Within five years, the researchers add, over 6% of trade will be internet-based. Instead of the current US/Europe divide, the market will be increasingly characterised by a northern Europe/southern Europe divide.

Elliott Chase